We welcomed a baby son into the world early last Monday morning. And through the haze of sleep-deprivation, I remembered my commitment (to myself) to post something at least once weekly to this blog. So here I am. Because it is so topical for me, I thought that I would focus today’s post on emergency preparation for families. In writing this article I have edited some of the information at ready.gov (BTW a good resource for personal and community preparedness; look beyond the focus on bioterrorism - and the US if you live elsewhere - and seek to draw more general lessons from the information they present).

Emergency Planning Tips from www.ready.gov
You should plan in advance what you will do in an emergency. Be prepared to assess the situation, use common sense and whatever you have on hand to take care of yourself and your loved ones. Think about the places where your family spends time: school, work and other places you frequent. Ask about their emergency plans. Find out how they will communicate with families during an emergency. If they do not have an emergency plan, consider helping develop one.

Develop a Family Communications Plan
Your family may not be together when disaster strikes, so plan how you will contact one another and review what you will do in different situations. Consider a plan where each family member calls, or e-mails, the same friend or relativein the event of an emergency. It may be easier to make a long-distance phone call than to call across town, so an out-of-town contact may be in a better position to communicate among separated family members (and also should be physically safe and not need evacuation, etc). Be sure each person knows the phone number and has coins or a prepaid phone card to call the emergency contact (also program into mobile phone address book). Even though you may have trouble getting through, be patient and keep trying.

Deciding to Stay or Go
The first important decision is whether to stay put or get away. You should understand and plan for both possibilities. Use common sense and available information to determine if there is immediate danger. In any emergency, local authorities may or may not immediately be able to provide information on what is happening and what you should do (think Katrina). Make sure that you watch TV, listen to the radio or check the Internet often for information or official instructions as they become available. If you’re specifically told to evacuate or seek medical treatment, do so immediately.

Staying Put and Sheltering-in-Place
Whether you are at home, work or elsewhere, there may be situations when it’s simply best to stay where you are and avoid any uncertainty outside. In fact, there are some circumstances where staying put and creating a barrier between yourself and the potentially contaminated air outside by sealing the room (a process known as sheltering-in-place) is the essence of survival. Plan in advance where you will take shelter in this kind of emergency.

Choose an interior room or one with as few windows and doors as possible. Consider precutting plastic sheeting to seal windows, doors and air vents. Each piece should be several inches larger than the space you want to cover so that it lies flat against the wall. Label each piece with the location of where it fits. Use available information to assess the situation. If you see large amounts of debris in the air,or if local authorities say the air is badly contaminated, you may want to shelter-in-place and seal the room.

Quickly bring your family and pets inside, lock doors, and close windows, air-vents and fireplace-dampers. Turn off air conditioning, forced air heating systems, exhaust fans, clothes dryers, ovens and hot-plates.Take your emergency supplies and go into the room you have designated (consider pre-stocking the room with food, water, first aid kit, medications, radio and torches). Seal all windows, doors and vents with plastic sheeting and duct tape or anything else you have on hand. Listen to the TV, the radio, or check the Internet for instructions.

Getting Away
There may be conditions under which you will decideto get away, or there may be situations when you are ordered to leave.Plan in advance how you will assemble your family and anticipate where you will go. Choose several destinations in different directions so you have options in an emergency. Consider pre-briefing any friends or family at each destination, and cacheing food, water, medications and other essentials.

If you have a car, keep at least a half-tank of gas in it at all times. Become familiar with alternate routes as well as other means of transportation out of your area. If you do not have a car, plan how you will leave if you have to. Take your emergency supply kit, unless you have reason to believe it has been contaminated, and lock the door behind you.

Take pets with you if you are told to evacuate; however, if you are going to a public shelter, keep in mind that they may not be allowed inside (and perhaps may be safer left at home?). If you believe the air may be contaminated, drive with your windows and vents closed and keep the air conditioning and heater turned off.

From the Report:
In all cases, remain calm. Be prepared to adapt this information to your personal circumstances and make every effort to follow instructions received from authorities on the scene. Above all, stay calm, be patient and think before you act. With these simple preparations, you can be ready for the unexpected. If you have a working smoke detector, you understand that preparing makes sense. Get ready now. This common sense framework is designed to launch a process of learning about citizen preparedness. For the most current information and recommendations, go online to www.ready.gov

Working Together
Schools, daycare providers, workplaces, neighborhoods and apartment buildings, like individuals and families, shouldall have site-specific emergency plans. Ask about plans at the places where your family spends time: work, school and other places you frequent. If none exist, consider volunteering to help develop one. Youwill be better prepared to reunite your family and loved ones safely during an emergency if you think ahead, and communicate with others in advance.

Neighborhoods and Apartment Buildings
A community working together during an emergency makes great sense (and might also be the crucial factor that ensures your survival). Talk to your neighbors about how you can work together. Find out if anyone has specialized equipment or expertise (such as a power generator or medical knowledge) that might help in a crisis. Decide who will check on elderly or disabled neighbors. Make backup plans for children in case you can’t get home in an emergency. Sharing plans and communicating in advance is always a good strategy.

Schools and Daycare
If you are a parent, make sure that your children’s schools and daycare providers have emergency response plans. Ask how they will communicate with families during a crisis. Do they store adequate food, water and other emergency supplies? Find out if they are prepared to shelter-in-place if need be, and where they plan to go if they must get away.

Workplaces
Ask if your workplace has a disaster management and evacuation plan that is regularly updated (or consider forming a working group - perhaps integrated into an existing occupational safety committee - to prepare one if it doesn’t). Take a critical look at your heating, ventilation and air-conditioning systems to determine if they are secure, or if they could be feasibly upgraded to better filter potential contaminants. Find out how to turn off the system if necessary. Think about what to do if you and your co-workers can’t go home, and make sure you have appropriate supplies on hand.

POM Comment
While all of these suggestions may not be applicable to every person or situation, I thought that there was enough value there for each of us to make them worth publishing.

Click here for the complete 16 page brochure where I got this information from (includes a plan template at the back).

Click these links to see examples of each type at Amazon: First Aid Kits; Hand Crank Torches; Hand Crank Radios; Survival Kits; Water Purifiers; Leatherman Multitools; Portable Power Generators; Swiss Army Knives. It’s worth having a look so that you know the types of things that you can pick from to include in a kit of your own.

Finally, remember that all material on this website is (C) Paul Roth 2007 (-/+ co-authors where applicable) and covered by our disclaimer.

I found the following check-list on a US Government site. I post it here for your use, as it is related to the preparedness sub-theme of the blog. It is also a similar idea to that found in When Technology Fails.

When preparing for a possible emergency situation, it’s best to think first about the basics of survival: fresh water, food, clean air and warmth.

Recommended Items to Include in a Basic Emergency Supply Kit:

• Water, one gallon of water per person per day for at least three days, for drinking and sanitation
• Food, at least a three-day supply of non-perishable food
• Battery-powered or hand crank radio and a NOAA Weather Radio with tone alert and extra batteries for both
• Flashlight and extra batteries
• First aid kit
• Whistle to signal for help
• Dust mask, to help filter contaminated air and plastic sheeting and duct tape to shelter-in-place
• Moist towelettes, garbage bags and plastic ties for personal sanitation
• Wrench or pliers to turn off utilities
• Can opener for food (if kit contains canned food)
• Local maps

Additional Items to Consider Adding to an Emergency Supply Kit:

• Prescription medications and glasses
• Infant formula and diapers
• Pet food and extra water for your pet
• Important family documents such as copies of insurance policies, identification and bank account records in a waterproof, portable container
• Cash or traveler’s checks and change
• Emergency reference material such as a first aid book or information from www.ready.gov
• Sleeping bag or warm blanket for each person. Consider additional bedding if you live in a cold-weather climate.
• Complete change of clothing including a long sleeved shirt, long pants and sturdy shoes. Consider additional clothing if you live in a cold-weather climate.
• Household chlorine bleach and medicine dropper – When diluted nine parts water to one part bleach, bleach can be used as a disinfectant. Or in an emergency, you can use it to treat water by using 16 drops of regular household liquid bleach per gallon of water. Do not use scented, color safe or bleaches with added cleaners.
• Fire Extinguisher
• Matches in a waterproof container
• Feminine supplies and personal hygiene items
• Mess kits, paper cups, plates and plastic utensils, paper towels
• Paper and pencil
• Books, games, puzzles or other activities for children

Today’s video is about Cuba and peak oil.

I hope you like it

Available as a pdf for registered users.

Many of us who are aware of (dare I say preoccupied with) peak oil and its likely effects on an unprepared world tend to get so fixated on it (I know I do), that the potential for other factors to also cause disruption is neglected. So in this post I’d like to address any such neglect by exploring some of the non-oil factors that could come into play in the future.

Before I get to them, I’d like to briefly consider why our society might be so vulnerable in the first place. A big factor is the lack of functional reserve in many critical systems. Many doctors would already be familiar with this concept and its use in physiology. It describes the resiliency of a system (ie the ability to function after some sort of impairment). Let’s choose a biological example as an illustration. Consider the liver. In the pristine state, a liver has a large functional reserve. It is able to perform its life-sustaining services by using just a fraction of its total capacity. It therefore has an inbuilt redundancy system that allows for the loss of liver cells without compromising hepatic function. This explains why one can resect a liver tumour, or safely transplant just a part of a liver without killing one’s patient. It also explains why a person with mild to moderate alcoholic cirrhosis can lead an essentially normal life if they stop drinking.

So let’s apply this concept to our society. Picture the degree of debt that many are in, or the just-in-time inventory management systems that place only a day or two of supplies in a supermarket. Or maybe widespread financial derivatives trading or outsourced hospital linen services. Each factor decreases the functional reserve of the system, by reducing its ability to deal with sudden shocks (as there are minimal reserves available to act as a buffer). Globalisation and interconnectedness make it worse by allowing essentially instantaneous communication (thereby letting the shockwaves that follow sudden events to spread rapidly and extensively; this has the effect of magnifying any disruption because all people react at the same time). And in our highly complex world, even small events can similarly be magnified in importance, for example when a relatively small but critical process fails.

This brings us to the natural world. Buffers like the atmosphere and oceans allow nature to adjust to sudden events, just like the corresponding ones in the human world do. This results in a readjustment of natural parameters within ranges that coincidentally allow life on earth to flourish. Part of the way they do this is by transforming, storing or otherwise “hiding” harmful substances.

Unfortunately for us, many natural buffering systems are saturated, or operating at full capacity (some are likely to be over-saturated, but that’s another part of the story). They are therefore vulnerable to even small fluctuations or short-term shocks, as they do not have any spare capacity left to cope.

So what happens when natural, cultural or physiological systems are at saturation point and are assaulted by (even small) further disruption? They tip (see TheTipping Point for further information). That means they change suddenly from one state to another. If one is thinking about livers, hepatic failure is the result. If financial derivatives, think share market crash. If natural systems, think rapid climate change or population die-off. All are, of course, very bad if it happens to involve you.

I contend, like other authors, that many social and natural systems are poised at their tipping points right now (or may well have crossed them, given the time lags present in systems like oceans and climate - we just don’t know it yet). There is therefore a whole menu of potential causes for societal crisis and disruption, in addition to peak oil. They are categorised below.

Infectious diseases

• Human: Pandemic influenza; SARS; HIV; TB.
• Animal: BSE; Newcastle disease.

Conflicts

• Wars: Middle East; regional conflicts.
• Terrorism: Bioterrorism; nuclear; high profile (9/11); oil terrorism; infrastructure (eg Strait of Hormuz).
• Piracy.
• Resource Wars: Water; mineral resources; timber; land.

Environmental / biosphere events

• Weather: Heat waves; cold snaps; droughts; floods; storms.
• Shortages: Water; energy (oil); minerals; uranium (eventually ?); blackouts.
• Degradation: Soil; water.
• Pollution: Air; water; soil.
• Accidents: Nuclear; chemical; oil spills.

Economic and political factors

• Share market crashes.
• Property price crashes.
• Recession / depression.
• Unemployment.
• Inflation.
• Extreme political regimes.

Urban or social disruption

• Urban decay.
• Riots.
• Escalating crime.

This list is an organised version of a brainstorming session that I did. If you can think of others please leave me a comment. My reason for this post is simple: even if you remain a peak oil sceptic, there are so many other potential causes of crisis that one needs to think seriously about how we (as both individuals and as a society) can prepare for and cope with future disruptions.

I hope that I have demonstrated the need to pursue a basic level of preparedness for you and your family, especially as occurrences like water supply disruptions could place your health at risk. I would suggest this book as a fantastic place to start your preparation.