Peak Oil Medicine

A blog by Dr Paul Roth exploring healthcare options for a scarce oil future.

Archive for March, 2007

Peak Oil Medicine mp3 Audio: Jim Kunstler Interview

Posted by Paul Roth on 29th March 2007

For the next few weeks I’m going to post a link to an mp3 audio of an interview from several well-known peak oil authorities (and later some more esoteric topics as well). I’ve found a great website that has several such mp3’s. The first interview is with Jim Kunstler (author of The Long Emergency) so click this link for Jim. There’s also a transcript of the interview available at the site.

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Peak Oil Medicine Video: Patient Care During a Catastrophic Event…

Posted by Paul Roth on 27th March 2007

Here’s an extra video for this week. This is a MUST SEE for all in the healthcare field who have thought how they might care for mass casualties after a peak oil-related disaster or other event. While it specifically addresses the pandemic influenza threat, there is much that can be applied to any similar situation.

The place I found it is not the usual YouTube or google video, so I am unable to embed it in this post - you’ll have to click here to watch it.

When you get to the next page (at the Research Channel), scroll down and find the bit below the speaker photo that says “Watch this program now“. Select whether you want to use Windows Media or Quicktime format, choose your connection speed and off you go.

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Peak Oil Medicine Video: Permian Extinction Event and Abrupt Climate Change.

Posted by Paul Roth on 27th March 2007

Take two for this week: An interesting segment about the Permian Extinction and the possible role of global warming in releasing massive amounts of methane from hydrate deposits.

The Permian Mass Extinction
The Permian Mass Extinction which ocurred 250 million years ago, wiped out 95% of the existing species, and began the age of the Dinosaurs.
05:27

Some related links:

Methane ices pose climate puzzle

The “Big Burp Theory” (or Methane Burp) at Wikipedia

Scholarly book about methane hydrates (”Methane Hydrates in Quaternary Climate Change: The Clathrate Gun Hypothesis”)

Article about methane hydrate and abrupt climate change from Geotimes
Hope you like it. I will keep looking for the “missing” video that I posted yesterday, and re-link to it if I find it.

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Peak Oil Medicine Video: How will the world end? Take your pick.

Posted by Paul Roth on 26th March 2007

Sorry about this: It seems that the video is “no longer available” at Google Video, even though I only checked it yesterday. Anyway, let’s try again.

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Infection Control After Peak Oil: Lessons From 1918.

Posted by Paul Roth on 25th March 2007

This is a transcript of a US Army document published in 1918. I have marked what I think are the most important points in bold. It provides many lessons about managing infection without antibiotics. I will publish a commentary next week (which will bump the HIV article back another week - sorry :-)).

PNEUMONIA - ITS PREVENTION AND MANAGEMENT

EXCERPTED FROM APPENDIX: THE MEDICAL DEPARTMENT OF THE UNITED STATES ARMY IN THE WORLD WAR.

VOLUME II: ADMINISTRATION, AMERICAN EXPEDITIONARY FORCES.WASHINGTON, D.C.: GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE, 1927.

The present epidemic of respiratory infection in the American Expeditionary Forces is largely influenzal in character, with a rather high incidence of secondary pneumonia due usually to pneumococci or streptococci and occasionally to influenza bacilli and possibly to meningococci. The mortality has been in the neighbourhood of 30 per cent. As primary pneumonia is likely to increase with the advent of colder weather, medical officers are reminded that the prevalence of pneumonia, as well as of other respiratory infections, in armies in the field depends particularly upon:(1) Overcrowding.

(2) Exposure to wet and cold.

(3) Fatigue, whether induced by overwork, a long journey, loss of sleep, or nervous exhaustion from worry.

Crowding forces the occupants in barracks or billets into close personal contact, and the greatest danger from it in relation to the occurrence and spread of respiratory infections is obviously in the increased opportunity furnished for droplet infection of the healthy inmates from those who already harbor pathogenic micro-organisms in their noses or throats.

In epidemics of pneumonia or of influenza, the disease is undoubtedly usually spread from man to man through the secretions or discharges from the mouth, nose, or other parts of the respiratory tract, and an individual who harbors virulent pneumoccoci or streptococci or influenza bacilli is obviously very likely to infect his cosleepers by coughing or sneezing, or even speaking loudly in close proximity to them.

In the present epidemic, the great majority of the cases of pneumonia are secondary to influenza—the natural resistance of the individual having been first broken down by this disease, secondary infection of the respiratory tract with pneumococci or streptococci has occurred.

In Panama, where climatic conditions were not severe, pneumonia was prevalent, particularly on account of overcrowding, and the same was found to be true among the workers in the South African mines. Prevention consisted particularly iii scattering the individuals and giving them separate dwellings in place of barracks.

Overcrowding
In relation to overcrowding, Medical War Manual No. 1, for 1917, authorized by the Secretary of War under the supervision of the Surgeon General and Council of National Defense, states that whenever possible the floor space per enlisted man should be 80 square feet, affording 960 cubic feet, and should never be less than 10 by 6 feet, or 60 square feet, which with a ceiling 12 feet high would afford 720 cubic feet. This manual further states that should an epidemic occur and should the soldiers be overcrowded, it may be assumed axiomatically that the epidemic can not be checked by other sanitary measures alone, but must be combined with measures to relieve the overcrowding. Owing to the shortage of lumber and materials, it was thought necessary in the American Expeditionary Forces to reduce the space per man to 1 linear foot, or 20 square feet—one-third of the minimum amount recommended. The order directs that bunks shall be 2 feet 8 inches wide by 6 feet 6 inches, double tier, in sets of four, 2 feet 8 inches apart, giving 1 linear foot of Adrian barracks per man. It is hoped that conditions will soon be such that this allowance may be increased. In the meantime, an effort must be made to prevent droplet infection by other means between the men sleeping side by side in barracks. A board partition 2 feet high may be built between the two adjoining bunks, Until this is done, wires may be run 2 feet above the bunks and the shelter tents suspended upon them between the adjoining bunks, Similar precautions should be taken in billets and tents. This is a more practical arrangement than placing the head to the feet of the adjacent sleeper. In cases where the overcrowding is excessive and the weather fine, the advisability of bivouacing the men in the open air under shelter tents, or other canvas, should be considered, If this is done, additional blankets obviously should be supplied. Relief from the dangers of overcrowding should be the first important consideration in connection with the checking of the present epidemic. Distance between beds is the important factor, not cubic space, in the prevention of the spreading of pneumonia infections, Crowding in recreation rooms at cinematograph entertainments, etc., should at present time be prevented as much as possible.

Wet and cold
Wet and cold are also important predisposing factors in pneumonia epidemics. A lowered condition of vitality from cold favors particularly the development of such infectious diseases as pneumonia and influenza, by lowering the resistance of the bronchial and pulmonary tissues to infection. Experiments suggest that infections with these diseases are favored by cold and chilling through the stimulation of the mucous glands with resulting closure of the small bronchioles with plugs of mucus. It is well known that the functions of the leucocytes are disturbed by cold, and it seems likely that phagocytosis may play an important role in connection with the mechanism of immunity in pneumonia, and that immunity is in this disease particularly related to the functions of the leucocytes. The movements and phagocytic action of the leucocytes occur ~most favourably at about the temperature of the normal body. Exposure of the skin to cold and wet leads to chilling of the leucocytes during their repeated passage through the skin capillaries, which may diminish their functional activity, and thus lower resistance to a point at which infection may occur. It should be borne in mind that cold wet feet produce a general reaction of the body and not only a local one, and that this condition also predisposes to infection. Cold and wet have less unfavorable action when accompanied by energetic muscular exercises, if a condition of fatigue is not reached. Additional efforts should be made to provide for the prompt removal and drying of the wet clothing of the soldier, and additional blankets at night must be insisted upon.

Fatigue
It should be borne in mind that fatigue induced by overwork and also by lack of sleep and worry in connection with wet and cold has been one reason for the excessive mortality from pneumonia in armies in the field. It is well known that normal resistance to infection may be broken down by fatigue.

Early detection
Greater attention should be paid by medical officers to the early discovery of cases of colds, cases of influenza, and other respiratory infections, and to prompt isolation and treatment of such cases. Carriers undoubtedly play an important role in disseminating pneumocoeci, streptococci, and influenza bacilli as well as meningococci.

Warning against spitting
Men should be specifically instructed at this time against expectorating in quarters, and the danger of sneezing and coughing and of speaking in close proximity to the face explained.

THE MANAGEMENT OF PNEUMONIA

1. Pneumonia, especially as it occurs among troops, and as it is now present in the American Expeditionary Forces, must be regarded as a highly contagious disease, and it must be managed with the same precautions as are taken in the care of other contagious diseases.

2. The epidemics of influenza now prevalent in many widely separated parts of France have at least one point in common; i. e., the occurrence of pneumonia as an incidence of the disease, a complication, or a sequel. The pneumonia is usually of a patchy type, different slightly in its characteristics in different regions, but characterized by rapid progress, great respiratory distress, frequency of early collapse, and high mortality. The causative organism may not always be the same; pneumococcus, streptococcus, and the influenza bacilli and occasionally the meningococcus all seem to contribute their share.

3. Early isolation and hospitalization of pneumonia as well as of influenza and similar respiratory infections will do much to prevent the spread of the disease and lower the mortality. Cases should be hospitalized, when possible in medical formations where they may remain until recovery, even though the initial trip by ambulance may be somewhat lengthened. Cases of pneumonia in the earliest stages withstand transportation fairly well, but later in the disease after they are hospitalized, they are greatly injured by moving. Numerous cases of respiratory infections have been evacuated by train or by motor, to arrive at their destination some hours later in profound collapse, to die within a very short time. Moving a case of pneumonia to make room for a battle casualty may kill the pneumonia patient and not aid the wounded, and the practice should not be tolerated.

4. Isolation or segregation should be practised in all cases of respiratory infection and such isolation should start in the field. Upon arrival at the hospital the cases of respiratory infection should be received in wards devoted to the observation of cases with respiratory infection; or if it is possible to make an absolute diagnosis on admission to the hospital, the case may be sent directly to the ward designated to receive cases suffering from that particular type of infection. The observation ward for respiratory diseases should be cubicled, a sheet or other partition being placed between adjacent beds. It is desirable that an accurate diagnosis be made as soon as possible of cases in this ward so that they may be transferred immediately to those wards designated to receive cases suffering from the different types of respiratory infection. All cases of uncomplicated influenza should be isolated in separate wards as rigidly as if they were cases of measles, and all beds should be cubicled. No cases of pneumonia should be sent to these wards, and should a patient with influenza develop pneumonia he should be immediately removed to a pneumonia ward. Cases of pneumonia should be segregated in wards set aside for this purpose. These wards should be cubicled. The reason why such rigid isolation and employment of the cubicled system is imperative is due to the fact that, first, cases of influenza are highly susceptible to pneumonia and may be infected with great readiness by a pneumonia patient in the near proximity, and, secondly, that the lobular type of pneumonia may be caused by several varieties of organisms, and should a patient with a pneumococcal pneumonia be placed next to one with a streptococcus pneumonia either one or both patients might readily contract a double infection. The course of the disease in such double infections is much more serious and the mortality much higher than in single infections. Cross infections will, therefore, be less common and the mortality reduced by cubicle isolation for all respiratory infections. The practice of receiving respiratory infections of unknown origin in wards with other medical or surgical cases is reprehensible and is responsible for many fatal cases of pneumonia in individuals who might otherwise have been returned to duty within a short time. Cubicle isolation may most readily be carried out by screening with sheets. This can be done by posts and the use of wire and can be adapted for tents as well as for wards. It is only necessary that the screen should reach midway between the foot and head of the bed, halfway between the bed and the floor, and 2 1/2 to 3 feet above the level of the patient. It is, however, highly important that the screen should extend several inches beyond the head of the bed.

5. Protection of medical officers, nurses, and personnel with gowns and fresh and clean gauze masks is important, both to prevent spread of infection among them and to prevent their transmitting infection to others. Attendants should be examined with the view to finding carriers: When found, these should be disinfected. Masking of all individuals who come in contact with cases of respiratory infection and fever, except in case of extreme urgency, and then only with precautions to prevent the transmission of the disease to others. Patients should be masked while being moved.

6. Special attention must be paid to all cases of respiratory infection, with fever with relation to the development of signs of pneumonia. It is often impossible at the outset to distinguish between cases of influenza, without consolidation, and actual pneumonia, All cases, with fever and with symptoms referable to the respiratory tract, must be viewed with suspicion and hospitalized, and the physical signs must be carefully watched.

7. Bacteriological examination in order to determine the infecting organism is important, not only from the standpoint of specific therapy, hut also to facilitate the management of cases of different aetiology. It must be remembered that pneumonia is really a group of diseases, with certain common signs and symptoms. The promiscuous mingling of cases of pneumonia, without determination of the infecting organism, is as harmful as the mingling of measles, scarlet fever, and smallpox.

8. Specific therapy, when possible, is advisable. This will at present be limited to cases of pneumonia due to pneumococcus, type 1. The indiscriminate use of serum, without proper type determination, is ill-advised, not only on account of the fact that it subjects the patient to unnecessary inconvenience, discomfort, and possibly danger, but on account of the fact that serum is scarce, and must be saved for the cases in which it is actually indicated. The polyvalent serum may be used in type 1 cases, as its titer for the type 1 organism is as high as that of the monovalent type I serum. The use of polyvalent serum in cases other than those due to pneumococcus, type 1, is not advised.

9. General treatment should be directed toward sustaining the patient and guarding against collapse. Under no circumstances should a patient with pneumonia, or suspected of having pneumonia, be allowed to walk, and after he is put to bed he should not be permitted to sit up for any reason whatsoever, He must be kept warm, but must be assured a continuous supply of fresh air. Fluids should be given freely from the start, and the patient should be induced to take them frequently and in considerable amounts. Sponge baths should be used to combat high temperatures.

10. Early cyanosis and collapse are characteristic of the present form of pneumonia. Treatment aimed to prevent and to combat circulatory failure should be instituted promptly on making the diagnosis of pneumonia. The early use of digitalis has been shown to reduce mortality, and is advised. It may be given in the form of a standard tincture, of which a total amount of 30 c. c. (1 fluid ounce) should usually be given. The following schedule may be followed.

If seen on the first or second day:

[table]

If seen on the third day, or later:

[table]

The hospitals should supply themselves with a standard tincture of digitalis. Do not use pills which are insoluble. Other stimulants, notably citrated caffeine and camphorated oil, may be used by hypodermic injection when collapse occurs or is imminent. The use of strychine has not been shown to be of value.

11. Morphine is of great value to control severe coughing, to relieve the pain of pleuntis, and to secure rest for the patient. It should be used without hesitation. For the troublesome tympanites that frequently occur, turpentine stupes, given while a small catheter is inserted in the rectum, are of value.

12. Most careful attention must be paid to the physical signs, particularly with relation to spread of the consolidation and to fluid in the chest. When the physical signs suggest fluid exploratory puncture, the microscopic and bacteriological examination of the fluid obtained should be performed promptly. Exploratory respiration is a simple procedure, with little, danger or discomfort to the patient. Local anesthesia may be induced by freezing or by intracutaneous and subcutaneous injection of cocaine or novocaine. When clear or even slight turbid fluid is obtained, even when the infecting organisms are demonstrated in the fluid, treatment by repeated aspiration with the Potain aspirator is followed by the best results, When purulent fluid is found, or in cases where fluid previously clear becomes purulent, operation is advised, with postoperative measures. necessary to insure free drainage.

13. Convalescence must be managed with care, both as to the condition of the patient and as to his transmitting the disease to others. Development of pleural exudate late in the disease, or during convalescence, is not uncommon, and frequent physical examination must not be neglected. Relapse or spread may also occur after the temperature has been normal for several days, and the patient should not be permitted to sit up or move about until 7 to 10 days have elapsed. During this period isolation should be practiced as during the acute stage of the disease. The use of mildly antiseptic solutions in the mouth and nasal passages is of value in reducing the number of carriers. Patients should not be allowed to mingle with other patients, and should not be evacuated until all signs of infection of the respiratory tract have disappeared.

14. Recovery and return to duty will be slow. The final stages of recovery will best be provided for in convalescent camps. No patient who has had pneumonia should be evacuated to a convalescent camp until his temperature has been normal for at least two weeks, and in cases where the infection has been severe or prolonged this period will be materially increased, The patient should be free from cough and other physical signs should be normal.

WALTER D. McCAW,

Colonel, Medical Corps, Chief Surgeon.

Posted in Low Tech Medicine, Infection Control, Medicine | No Comments »

Peak Oil Medicine Video: “Pondering our Post-Petroleum Future” with Michael Ruppert

Posted by Paul Roth on 20th March 2007

More about Michael Ruppert:

"Pondering our Post-Petroleum Future" with Michael Ruppert
Peak Moment 28: Michael Ruppert, publisher of FromTheWilderness.com, has made connections between money, Peak Oil, and geopolitics for years. He discusses his move to Ashland and offers specific to-do’s around money and investment “in light of the imminent collapse of the U.S. economy”: invest locally.
27:49

This time he’s being interviewed on the ever-interesting “Peak Moment”.

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TB control in nineteenth century New York City

Posted by Paul Roth on 17th March 2007

Imagine for a few minutes that you are a young man living in New York City as the nineteenth century draws to a close. You work in a blue-collar occupation, working hard in sometimes harsh conditions to make ends meet. Suddenly you develop a cough that you can’t control. You cough up lots of phlegm. You start to sweat at night. Eventually, you start to lose weight. You keep losing weight. It is as though you are being consumed by whatever it is that is making you cough. Months pass. One day you don’t turn up for work. Your family is surprised at how many of your workmates attend your funeral. Some of them are coughing, too…

You, along with 10,000 others each year are victims of the same illness - tuberculosis. With a mortality rate of 280 / 100,000 head of population, TB is the commonest cause of death in the city. Young men from the poorer blue-collar groups bear the brunt of the illness, and in a time before antibiotics, there is no way to stop the spread of what is called “the captain of death”. Or is there?

Enter a remarkable man called Hermann Biggs, of the NYC Department of Health. He introduces a five-step program that is incredibly effective at containing TB, eventually reducing its death toll significantly. His program, and what we can learn from it today as we go forward into a scarce oil future, is the focus of today’s article.

Biggs’ TB Containment Strategy
There were five crucial components that lead to the control of tuberculosis in turn-of-the-century New York. They are:

  • Mandatory notification
  • Free sputum examination
  • Individual nursing follow-up
  • Public education about the nature of TB and it airborne mode of spread
  • Strengthening of political will to gain financial and administrative support

Let’s examine each one in turn.

Mandatory Notification
The introduction of this legislated tool caused a flurry of controversy, not least amongst the medical profession of the day (who were worried about the threat to their autonomy). Eventually their opposition decreased, partly as a result of an undertaking to keep all notifications confidential. Notification served several functions. While it ensured that identified cases received the then gold-standard treatment (rest, fresh air, sunlight and good nutrition), it also allowed adequate follow-up of cases, the tracing of contacts, and verification of a patient’s compliance with public health measures.

Free Sputum Examination
If there’s one body fluid that I really don’t like its phlegm. Even more than vomit. The rest I don’t mind. But phlegm is special. There’s something about hearing someone hawk up a steaming gob of the stuff that just doesn’t compute. And it’s full of the TB bacillus, of course, if you have TB. Which is bad if you’re a close personal friend of the afflicted, but good if you’re a public health official tasked with tackling TB. Why is identification so important? It allows one to confirm the clinical diagnosis, ensure adequate treatment, and monitor progress. And as laboratory testing in nineteenth century New York was inaccessible for many (just as it is now), Biggs ensured its widespread use by removing the barrier of cost.

Individual Nursing Follow-Up
So if you worked for the NYC Department of Health 100 years ago, the only real way to control TB was to stop the disease from spreading (because you couldn’t treat individual cases with antibiotics). And the way you stopped it from spreading was to stop people with TB coughing it up in public places. The only two ways that you could do that was to either wait for the person’s body to heal the TB lesions (by providing optimal nutrition and rest), or to prevent them from attending such places (by hospital admission). Nurses played a crucial role by supervising treatment (mainly at home – thereby avoiding the infection of others), educating the patient and their family about hygiene practices (such as covering their mouth when coughing), and reported when people weren’t compliant with these measures (which prompted admission to one of the many sanitoria in the city).

Public Education
Biggs used many of the methods of communication available in his time. One of the most successful was the establishment of an antituberculosis movement (a bit like ASPO really) to promote the benefits of controlling TB. The messages that were propagated talked about how serious TB was, the benefits of what was called “hygienic behaviour” (which was mainly not spitting in public, and covering your mouth when coughing), and the advances in scientific understanding of TB. Like all good public health practitioners, Biggs kept TB firmly in the mind of the public and the politicians alike, which helped him with the final piece of the TB control puzzle.

Political Will
The historical record shows that Biggs was able to continually expand his diagnostic and clinical services (even during periods of financial hardship for NYC). Why? Three things – tenacity, political influence (due to a mastery of the public relations process), and respect from other doctors (as Biggs was a renowned clinician who never stopped practising clinical medicine).

Modern Day Parallels
Where are we now? Tuberculosis has almost become untreatable with modern antibiotics (see my earlier post and this video). This is especially so in the developing world, although a sizeable pool of drug-resistant TB is also circulating amongst those with HIV/AIDS in the West. So for various reasons, modern medicine has already lost the fight against TB. Even the current best practice treatment (the WHO’s DOTS program – which by the way has many parallels with Biggs’ approach) has approved inadequate due to a combination of budgetary and political reasons. So where to now?

Relationship to Peak Oil
Some experts (including Matt Simmons) say that peak oil occurred in 2006. While the evidence is not yet definitive, the gap between demand and consumption has widened (which is just as good, even if we haven’t reached peak yet). So we face the failure of TB treatment at the same time as an exploding HIV epidemic, peak oil, and climate change. Therefore TB will, sooner or later, resume its pre-eminence as the infectious killer par excellence. Our only hope is to design low-tech, local systems that encompass the same steps as Biggs’ plan from a century ago (but adapted to local conditions).

References
In writing this article I have drawn heavily from the following reference (because it is just so good): Lessons from the 18002: tuberculosis control in the new millennium. Frieden TR, Lerner BH, Rutherford BR. The Lancet 2000; 355: 1088-1092. I based last week’s post about the emergence of drug-resistant TB on these two articles from the CDC:

Shah NS, Wright A, Bai G-H, Barrera L, Boulahbal F, Martín-Casabona N, et al. Worldwide emergence of extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2007. Volume 13 No 3.

Samper S, Martín C. Spread of extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis [letter]. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2007. Volume 13 No 4.

Next Week
When the Spanish flu pandemic hit in 1918, the US Army in France was severely hit. How they managed to contain the damage is the focus of my next article. And coming in two weeks: One country has managed to contain the spread of HIV in a way reminiscent of Hermann Biggs. Where is the country? What did they do? Stay tuned.

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Peak Oil Medicine Video: Peak Oil and Financial Markets

Posted by Paul Roth on 15th March 2007

Interesting 2 part video series from Mike Rupert, founder of From The Wilderness:

Peak Oil Economic Crisis
Denial Stops Here by Michael Ruppert.
www.fromthewilderness.com
06:56
Peak Oil Economic Crisis 2
Denial Stops Here by Michael Ruppert.
www.fromthewilderness.com
09:45

The promised article on TB is coming soon - I’ve had to do a few extra shifts recently but am working on it - almost ready.

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Peak Oil Medicine Video: Multi-drug resistant TB (video #2)

Posted by Paul Roth on 7th March 2007

This video eloquently explains the mechanism of drug resistance:

Why Does Evolution Matter Now?
Learn how tuberculosis is transmitted and why the evolution of multi-drug resistant strains of TB in Russia affects us all.
09:53

While I think it was originally part of some sort of creation versus evolution TV series, withhold judgement and look beyond that aspect of it, to the important information on TB.

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Peak Oil Medicine Video: Must see on drug-resistant TB (starring Brad Pitt).

Posted by Paul Roth on 5th March 2007

This video pretty much summarises in graphical format the content of my last post (note minor differences in duration of medication courses - 6 rather than 12 months - but the concepts remain the same).

Stalking A Killer
Documentary About Multi Drug Resistant Tuberculosis (MDR-TB) Narrated by Brad Pitt
03:53

Coming next: How to stop TB from spreading without using antibiotics.

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