Peak Oil Medicine

A blog by Dr Paul Roth exploring healthcare options for a scarce oil future.

Archive for December, 2006

Peak Oil Medicine Video: Globalization and Public Health.

Posted by Paul Roth on 30th December 2006

This is an interesting video from the University of Hawaii. It examines six aspects of healthcare and globalisation:

1. Health as a global security issue.

2. Private versus public health.

3. The legacy of H-bomb testing in the Pacific.

4. Health and the Pacific.

5. “The rich stay healthy and the poor get sick”.

6. Global health and labour issues.

Globalization and the Politics of Public Health
This episode explores the complex relations between globalization and public health, running the gamut from bioterrorism and thermonuclear  all »
2003 University of Hawaii
58 min 57 sec

Practical public health strategies (like immunisation and sanitation) are likely to become ever more important as healthcare funding shrinks (in response to peak oil, climate change and globalization) over the next 10-20 years. This is because the ROI is so high. In other words, simple and practical public health strategies have strong leverage: you get a lot of bang for your buck.

Posted in Videos | No Comments »

Peak Oil Medicine Video: Peak Oil and Climate Change.

Posted by Paul Roth on 29th December 2006

We’re sticking with the “Peak Moments” series in today’s video, but with a slightly different focus - climate change. Why? For several reasons:

*Their effects are likely to overlap.

*The effects of climate change are going to create increased demand for energy (for farming, transport, construction and mitigation efforts).

*Some of the proposed responses to peak oil (aka coal) will massively increase the amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide and make sure that we all well and truly cook.

*The negative health effects of climate change will increase the demand for medical care, the delivery of which will be affected by peak oil.

Climate Change and the State of the World
Peak Moment 15: Worldwatch Institute Director of Research Gary Gardner discusses challenges and opportunities as climate change accelerates, and hopeful responses from the grass roots level.
28:27

Is there a topic you’d like to see a video on? Please leave a comment with your suggestions.

Posted in Videos | No Comments »

Peak Oil Medicine Video: From Empire to Earth Community

Posted by Paul Roth on 28th December 2006

Today’s holiday viewing is a video by David Korten, author of The Great Turning: From Empire to Earth Community, When Corporations Rule The World, and The Post-Corporate World: Life After Capitalism. If you want to find out more information about him, you can visit The Great Turning website, or view a longer video at global public media.

David Korten - The Great Turning
David Korten author of “When Corporations Rule the World” on “The Great Turning: From Empire to Earth Community” at the Veterans for Peace 2006 National Convention in Seattle.
30:31

I hope that you are enjoying the holiday season.

Posted in Videos | No Comments »

Peak Oil Medicine Video: Low Energy Lifestyle - Lessons from Cuba.

Posted by Paul Roth on 26th December 2006

The next video for your holiday viewing is another one from Cuba, presented by Pat Murphy.

Low-Energy Lifestyle: Lessons from Cuba
Low energy lifestyle lessons from Cuba, an excellent documentary on living locally and sustainable living. Peak oil, community solutions,  all »
45 min 32 sec

I hope to have a regular video feature throughout 2007, as there is a surprisingly large number of good-quality videos on peak oil, climate change, public health and related topics.

Posted in Videos | No Comments »

Peak Oil Medicine Video: Cuba.

Posted by Paul Roth on 24th December 2006

Today’s video is about Cuba and peak oil.

Learning from Cuba’s Response to Peak Oil
Peak Moment #27: Megan Quinn of The Community Solution discusses her visit to Cuba, and the movie “The Power of Community”. This young woman sees Peak Oil as an opportunity to create the communities we want, but notes that we must reduce our consumption despite environmentalists’ assurances that biofuels will save us.
27:36

I hope you like it :-)

Posted in Videos, Preparedness, Survival, Peak Oil | No Comments »

Third World Public Health and Peak Oil

Posted by Paul Roth on 23rd December 2006

The recent publication of a WHO study attempting to predict global health patterns until 2030 has prompted me to think about the effects of peak oil on the health of people living in developing nations. I won’t discuss the study here because Dan Bednarz and his able assistant (me) are currently working on a detailed critique of that paper, and we hope to bring it to you soon.

So what might happen to healthcare in the third world after peak oil?

The most fundamental issue (to be further discussed by Bednarz et al) is that economic development and oil consumption are intimately (and fatally) linked. Like a viscous Romeo and Juliet, it is likely that what we currently mean by the term “economic growth” must decrease and eventually die, once its oily soul-mate starts to decline.

Healthcare Consequences
Consider the following points as you contemplate the fate of people living in Sub-Saharan Africa and other populous but relatively poor nations:

1. Humanitarian aid is currently dependent on oil-based vehicles (trucks, planes etc) for transportation of materials (eg food, water, medicines) and personnel.

2. The current Western agricultural surpluses that underwrite food aid efforts are subsidised by fossil-fuel dependent farming methods.

3. Increasing oil prices will decrease the disposable incomes and government surpluses that currently fund aid efforts.

4. Oil price increases in developing countries will consume progressively larger percentages of already meagre household incomes (through the need for fuel for heating, cooking, personal transport and farming etc). This will decrease the amount of money available to buy food, medicine, and other essentials).

5. Development work involving the construction of large-scale, capital-intensive infrastructure (eg bridges and dams) currently require large oil-inputs during the construction stage, as well as having large amounts of embodied fossil energy in the materials used (eg steel).

6. Existing and currently planned large infrastructure designed around the availability of cheap oil will be rendered obsolete, and may fall into disrepair due to escalating maintenance costs. Because they may become too expensive to operate, whatever services they supply will become unavailable (for example consider an oil-fired steam generator at a large hospital). They will also cost progressively more to operate as crude oil prices increase.

7. The development of domestic natural resources (like forestry or mining) will become more expensive and progressively more difficult for third world countries, as such activity is currently heavily subsidised by oil. A possible correlation is that richer countries (ie those who own or can afford to buy oil) will be able to exploit such natural endowments at a discount in exchange for hard currency, oil, weapons or other desirable items. Another possibility is that they will become the target of a resource war.

8. Developing countries that are currently oil exporters (eg Nigeria, Angola) may not benefit in the long-term if most oil profits end up offshore and those that remain are not used to develop sustainable post-carbon industries and amenities.

So, like everywhere else, it will depend on what you can do locally in a sustainable manner. Unfortunately the challenges are great, but not insurmountable. And rediscovering a sense of community while living in close contact with nature (aka permaculture) can’t be a bad thing, can it?

Posted in Medicine | No Comments »

Peak oil and global dimming

Posted by Paul Roth on 17th December 2006

This is probably old news, but this fascinating video from the BBC Horizons program (featured on a peak oil blog) is a must see.

In essence: Particulates from the burning of fossil fuels have been reflecting a reasonable percentage of incoming sunlight back into space, thereby partially protecting us from global warming.

The program contends that, as air pollution is decreased by more stringent emission legislation, global warming will accelerate (if we do not also reduce carbon dioxide release).

Although peak oil is not mentioned, the basic hypothesis still applies: A fairly rapid reduction in oil-fuelled transport (especially air travel, as jet contrails seem particularly important dimming agents) could accelerate the great warming (although perhaps increased coal use may partially offset it).

Watch the video here: http://simplereduce.blogspot.com/2006/12/global-dimming.html.

Posted in Climate Change, Environment, Global Warming, Medicine, Peak Oil | No Comments »

Hirsch4Health (Peak Oil)

Posted by Paul Roth on 15th December 2006

We need a healthcare Hirsch Report (or several many, really, from the smallest local hospital to the largest national health service).

A small group of individuals have begun agitating for just such a report(s), and I have decided to start this post as an initial attempt at keeping track of people, places and information.

If you are new to this idea you can read my post and press release about how one might conceptualise and conduct such a study. You could also see the original report or Wikipedia entry for further information. Hirsch has also published several more recent (but smaller) supplementary papers that I have reviewed:

In addition to the ideas in the posts listed above, some other initial thoughts are:

1. One would need to break such a report up into sections, possibly making use of the 80/20 rule to consider the most important items / uses for each area (else we’ll get bogged down with thousands of individual items).

2. I think we would need to disregard transport fuels so we don’t “reinvent the wheel” of the original Hirsch report. The possible redesign(s) of the systems to reduce transport dependence and increase local reliance ARE (very) important however, but perhaps need their own separate report(s)?
3. As healthcare is synonymous with pharmaceuticals for many, I think they need their own section. Possible subdivisions could be on the basis of:

  • Raw material replacement / substitution
  • Top-selling 20 or 30 (or 50 or 100) drugs
  • By condition with the top medications for each examined

4. I think perhaps we then need to subdivide the remainder into (a) plastics and (b) everything else. We especially should look at alternative plastic chemistry and feedstocks; also replacing plastic with glass, rubber, metal and other materials.

5. Of course all of this assumes business as usual ± current growth rates. One of the outcomes of a Hirsch4Health report might be that business as usual is untenable: A bit like saving energy through improved efficiency is better than investing in more power plants.

Please leave a comment below to add your voice and information to this project as we attempt to build a critical mass.

IMPORTANT: If you don’t know how to leave a comment (or are having trouble) you can see step-by-step instructions with pictures.

Posted in Hirsch | No Comments »

Peak Oil, Public Health and Natural Disasters

Posted by Paul Roth on 7th December 2006

This post has been inspired by one of the references mentioned by Mary McKee in her recent article. The publication in question, Shelter From The Storm: Local Public Health Faces Katrina, describes the hurricane experience of five public health departments that responded to the crisis. It does a good job of capturing the issues involved in dealing with the aftermath of the disaster, through a series of interviews with public health officials in five cities - Pensacola, Houston, Birmingham, San Antonio, and Memphis.

The following essay aims to derive some general lessons from these events. This is driven by the scope of the response needed, the role played by oil-fuelled transport, and the likelihood of further natural disasters driven by climate change. The following ideas are in no particular order of importance.

“Gone With The Wind”

Healthcare lessons from the public health response to Hurricane Katrina.

1. The scope of the systems that were in place before Katrina struck were essentially adequate for the task. The difficulty, however, lay in the fact that the systems were designed to cope with disasters occurring within their respective state: they were generally inadequately prepared for out-of-state evacuees. This included problems with accessing medical records and (later) getting reimbursed for expenses.

The lesson: Planning for emergencies needs to be done on a regional basis (much as natural resource management works better when organised around distinct bioregions). This is especially true for facilities and agencies occupying border regions of states or countries, where there is a higher than average risk of large natural disasters (eg Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean), or where the respective countries are small (eg Central America).

Their planning process was statewide, not regional, so a major role in assisting residents of (other states) was not one they had carefully rehearsed.

2. Several health departments had done scenario training, simulations or table-top exercises, but again generally based on in-state events: some were unprepared for large influxes of evacuees from areas quite distant from them. The lesson: Simulations are a useful training tool but are only a means to an end; they are also only as good as their content.

3. Don’t rely on the Federal Government for help - their response was delayed and inadequately small. The lesson: Look after yourself because the government won’t (or can’t).

FEMA came about two weeks after the evacuees…and followed its own protocols rather than integrating with local systems that already were in place.

4. Pharmaceutical supply was a major issue at several centres, as many patients arrived without their regular medications. The lesson: Stash a few days worth of essential medications to take with you in an emergency - there is no guarantee that there wll be any at your destination if you need to be evacuated, etc.

People should take more responsibility and rely less on the federal government.

5. In several locations the public health response succeeded in part due to informal relationships forged by key players before the disaster occurred. The lesson: Developing workable relationships within your community is essential for survival, no matter where you are or the size of your community.

6. Many local people volunteered their services to help out, but some agencies were unprepared for such offers and did not utilise their volunteers very well. The lesson: Disasters bring out the best in some people, even when you don’t expect it.

7. In at least two of the five cities profiled, local residents created friction about missing out on services that had been redirected to help evacuees. The lesson: Disasters may also bring out the worst of human nature.

The demand (from evacuees) would have been greater if gas shortages hadn’t kept many evacuees from making their way that far north (to Memphis).

8. Disease surveillance and food safety were two major areas of success - only one small outbreak of gastroenteritis occurred, and it was quickly contained. The lesson: Look for areas of leverage that give disproportionately large returns for the effort involved (mass immunisation was another successful example of this concept).

9. The Memphis case study explained that the number of evacuees received there would have been greater if gas shortages had not prevented car travel that far. It is also worth noting that many evacuees were moved by bus or plane. It is obvious then that mass transport after a large scale disaster is important.

Of note in this case is that it was predominately oil-fuelled. I presume that the transport of responders into impacted areas relied on similar methods, and also that rail transport would probably have been difficult due to hurricane damage. The lesson: Oil-fuelled transport was essential to the management of this disaster (and unless one rides a donkey, will probably continue to be so).

She’s not willing merely to trust federal co-ordination…disaster preparedness and response training… must occur across agencies and at the local level.

10. The response to Katrina needed to be maintained for several weeks (if not months) as evacuees could not return home. Several interviewees said that it was difficult (in terms of staffing and budgets) to continue caring for evacuees while also delivering their pre-Katrina services, and that a greater depth of trained workers and resources was needed. The lesson: Emergency planning must consider how to deal with the need for a possibly prolonged response (or even to more than one co-existing disaster).

11. Several aspects of the report highlight just how important it is for communities to be as self-reliant as possible. This includes developing a reserve of skills, manpower, materials and capital. Such relative independence from external help is likely to become even more important in the future as the weather and many other aspects of life become more unpredictable. The lesson: Identifying and developing local capabilities should begin now.

12. One of the interviewees said that health care workers must pay particular attention to be more prepared than average so that they “may assure their availability to serve during an emergency”. The lesson: Personal preparedness for all is important, but perhaps even more so for health care workers (so that they can respond without undue concern for the well-being of their own loved ones). I wonder even if we have an ethical duty and moral responsibility to be so prepared?

Clinical Issues

I wanted to list several specific clinical issues that were revealed in this report:

  • There are likely to be unwell patients who require acute medical care (and perhaps even greater numbers than normal due to stress; lack of food, water and sleep; absence of usual medications; and unaccustomed physical exertion).
  • It required a lot of resources to get the correct (regular) medications to the correct evacuee.
  • Treating substance abuse patients on methadone etc was an unforeseen need.
  • Accessing out-of-state medical records (including medications) was problematic.
  • Writing medication prescriptions was very time-consuming in some areas (in others emergency dispensing powers were used).
  • Many patients could not afford to buy new medications (in one area they were supplied with up to 10 prescriptions for free).
  • Dealing with special-needs patients (eg the elderly, mentally ill, or physically disabled) required extra attention to be successful.

Some unanswered questions

How should we prepare for the public health response to such large scale natural disasters?

Will global warming make these sorts of events more common?

How might the response have been different if the disaster had been a nuclear or biological terrorist attack and (a) the evacuees were contaminated or infected and (b) there was a health risk for the responders?

How successful would the response be if an identical disaster occurred after peak oil?

Posted in Medicine | 1 Comment »