As you probably know, Robert Hirsch is the author of a very influential and well-done report about peak oil mitigation options. It was published in February 2005 for the US Department of Energy’s National Energy Research Laboratory.

At the recent ASPO-5 conference, he presented an update of his findings. There were some interesting things in his presentation that I want to highlight here. The headings in bold are based on his talk, while the comments underneath are my own.

Peak oil will trigger a forced energy transition.
Each transition that has happened in the past (eg wood to coal; coal to oil) has evolved naturally and relatively slowly, allowing infrastructure and technology to grow naturally rather than being forced along in a crash program. For instance replacing horses with tractors took many years. The alternative movement, replacing tractors with horses for farm muscle, will be much more problematic (and maybe impossible?), because of the speed of the changeover. It is obvious that there just aren’t enough draught horses around for a rapid and world-wide switch (breeding enough will take decades) as well as relearning the almost-forgotten associated skills such as horse-shoeing, saddle and tackle-making, horse-drawn machinery manufacture, etc. So unless there is to be massive societal collapse, we are really looking at liquid fuel alternatives while we prepare for whatever comes after that.

Peak oil will last for decades.
Unlike the previous short-term “energy crises”, peak oil signals an absolute, geological end to cheap oil, rather than a politically-motivated shortage. Effective mitigation strategies must therefore also be on a multi-decade scale, and will require extensive planning.

Oil shortages will trigger depression
Hirsch has shown that economic growth and oil consumption are interlinked (because growth is currently fossil-fuel driven). Peak oil will cause a (significant ?) reduction in economic activity, decreasing demand somewhat in the short to medium term.

Inaccurate EIA natural gas forecasts 2002-2006
In his 2005 report, Hirsch analysed the peaking of US natural gas supply in order to gain some possible insights into peak oil. In this speech he shows a fantastic graph of EIA natural gas forecasts between 2002 and 2006, highlighting their inaccuracy. It is the same EIA that now predicts that peak oil is many years away.

Shape of the peak oil curve
Hirsch released a paper recently about the shape of the peak in four representative oil provinces: Texas, domestic USA, Norway, and the UK. In each, the peak was not able to be predicted just a year before it occurred, indicating that we will probably get minimal warning when the world oil supply peaks. He also shows that the shape of the graph at the peak is triangular rather than gently curving, suggesting that there could be a rapid fall in oil production after we go over the tipping point. A third finding is that oil production in the US continued to drop after peaking, despite modern exploration and production techniques, indicating that those who suggest that we will find more oil and be better at recovering it could be wrong.

Re-examination of report assumptions.
Hirsch reiterated that the 2005 report used a 2% per year decline rate in formulating the model. He presented data suggesting that the actual rate could be as high as 8%, making the situation “much worse”.

He also presented data from a follow-up study of the mitigation options that I will cover in the next post.

My recent article 8 ways that modern medicine is oil-dependent has now been published on the website of Doctors for the Environment Australia. An organisation that I’m actually a member of, their aim is to “utilise the skills of members of our profession to address the ill health that results from damage to our natural environment, local, national and global”. Their website is well worth a look, especially their “poster project” which is accessible from the home page. If you’re a doctor in Australia please consider joining; also take a look at the website of their parent body, the International Society of Doctors for the Environment.

I?ve been thinking about how one might deal with anxiety as we transition to a post-oil world. Obviously it depends on the speed of change and the degree of social stability, but it?s fair to say that the ?age of anxiety? that we are in now probably won?t be finishing any time soon.

I have been most pre-occupied with how primitive societies dealt with anxiety. Did anxiety exist as we know it? Did the level of violence prevalent in much of our history raise or lower anxiety levels? On the one hand, there was the ever-present threat of the appearance of some horde ready to rape and pillage. On the other, violence was used routinely to settle disputes. Now, assuming that one was the victor in such a dispute, was your anxiety lessened after you ?fixed? the problem? Or did you worry incessantly about a payback attack?

I presume that the processes that emerged as primitive societies attempted to make sense of their surroundings (for example rituals and sacrifices) may have been a response to anxiety, and an attempt to lower it. Take as an example the uncertainty of the weather. A sacrifice or ceremony in the name of the rain god would have displaced some of the anxiety onto an invisible deity, thereby reducing personal worry. And if the rains failed to come, and presuming you survived, did your personality remain fairly intact because you?d done all you could?

I also think that anxiety must have conferred a survival advantage, due to its prevalence in our society. The release of adrenaline and other hormones, as part of the fight or flight response, obviosuly helps one survive threatening encounters. I wonder if anxiety was an integral part of that (for example by increasing alertness and arousal), or rather an unwelcomed side effect that impaired performance?

I?m not sure of the answers to the questions I?ve posed. There must have been some people better at dealing with anxiety than others, and some societies, locations, and periods of time where the degree of personal safety, food, water etc was high and personal risks relatively low.

But also consider this - you live in a small village in a mud hut somewhere. And while the Mongol hordes aren?t over the next hill, there is a significant degree of violence in your area, directed at all groups in the population. And the violence has been going on for years, and is unlikely to stop any time soon. How do you go about your daily routine with calmness and peace of mind? How do you nurture a family? Are you able to get a good sound sleep at night?

I?ve done a few Google searches but haven?t really found any information that can help. I?m going to have a look at Victor Frankl?s book Man?s Search for Meaning as a possible source of inspiration, but I would also be grateful for any contributions you can make. Just click add a comment at the top of the post to contribute your opinion or reference material. I?ll be thinking about this topic over the next few weeks and will write some more about it as I develop my ideas - check back soon.

I want to start a listing of peak oil websites to act as a link resource for others. If you want to contribute, please click the “add a comment” link at the top of this post and leave the details. All comments and links are checked by me before posting, so no spam, adsense or affiliate sites please.

This post is a better-organised and updated version of one I wrote when I first started this blog. It was called “Modern Medicine is Fossil Fuel Dependent”, and it gave five examples of fossil fuel use. I feel that this article structures the information in a much better way, as it gives broad categories that can be adapted to the local setting, and used as headings for brainstorming.

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Most of our modern medical system is oil-dependent, just like the rest of society. Oil has been so cheap for so long that it has become a pervasive presence in health care delivery. This impact is most obvious when one looks at the transport systems required to maintain a health service. Just as suburbia has been subsidised by the endowment of cheap and plentiful oil, modern medical care is predicated on the cheap movement of things and people from one place to another. This cheap transportation is so crucial that the system must fall apart if no alternatives are developed before oil becomes scarce and even more expensive. This article examines these issues from the perspective of large hospitals - they represent one of the most centralised expressions of health care delivery, and will probably become one of the first major casualities of peak oil.

1. Transport
Modern healthcare facilities are open systems that consume inputs and produce wastes. With few exceptions, almost none of the inputs are created on site, and must be brought to the facility (usually by road). Examples include food, medical supplies, linen, and medical gases like oxygen. Outputs include general rubbish as well as clinical (ie contaminated) waste that reqiures special handling and disposal (either landmass or incineration). The other big transport category is people - staff, patients, visitors and students need to travel to and from the site.

2. Direct Content
Many items used in modern medicine contain petrochemical derivatives. Some of the main categories are gloves (synthetic rubber), clinical disposables (like syringes), medications, sterile packaging (mainly plastic), high-tech equipment like CT and MRI scanners, and computers.

3. Embodied
Many items that don’t directly contain petrochemicals do have oil-based products embodied within them. Producing stainless steel or titanium joint-replacement components may require oil at several steps, including mining, refining, manufacturing, transporting, and packaging.

4. Energy Production
There are two main categories - offsite (natural gas-fired power stations) and on-site (oil or gas for heating and steam generation).

5. Processes
Activities within hospitals like laundering (hot water) and equipment sterilisation (steam, plastic packaging, ethylene oxide) might be oil-dependent.

6. Roads and Buildings
Maintaining and constructing buildings and roads may include multiple oil-dependent processes.

7. Emergency Services
Most emergency services in Western society are vehicle-based and run on petrol or diesel. The majority are cars and trucks but also (especially) helicopters.

8. Organisational and Political Systems
Healthcare services exist within a complex system of modern society. They currently reside within a hierarchial structure of local, state and federal government, health insurance companies, vocational colleges, registration boards, and many other political and pseudopolitical entities. All are currently dependent on oil to a greater or lesser extent (especially for transporting people and things).

Outcomes
So what changes could peak oil bring to our health-care system? Like the impacts on the rest of society, it will partly depend on the rapidity of oil scarcity and the amount of preparation. In the short term there will probably be decreased and unequal access to services, rationing, and a reduction in quality of life (we might be sicker, more mentally ill, and not live as long). In the longer term, a successful transition will need to involve more personal responsibility for one’s own health, as well as a more informal and dispersed health care system centred on the small-community / village level.

Have a look at this interactive population map from the BBC to see how the world’s population is expected to grow over the next 10 years. The site says that we will pass the 50/50 urban/rural threshold around 2010 given current trends. Not such a good thing I’d say, given that it will likely coincide with the peak oil singularity. Here’s a different map.

This article is worth a look. It turned up in my inbox today. It talks about the recent organised violence in Brazil and the possibility of war with Iran, among other things.

I’ve finished the section of the prior entry about the Pareto Principle (aka the 80/20 rule). I’m working on the complexity / chaos section and will have it done soon.

Follow this link to find out the latest estimate. They have rationalised the low reserve level for the last three years but are their reasons correct, or is this an indication that we are very close to peak right now? Read the latest EIA short term energy outlook here.

So what’s one of the main differences between modern medical practice, and that predominating 500 years ago in 1506? Strip out all the modern technology, and you’re still left with a gigantic difference: techniques based on modern medical knowledge (like the biology of cancer and the physiology of the heart). There is a gulf as wide as the galaxy between what we know now, and what we knew then. Sure, technology has been a major factor in amassing this body of knowledge, but take away all the MRI scanners and electron microscopes, and the knowledge of cancer biology remains. So even though, in one possible future, we may not have the radioisotopes available to perform a bone scan, we will still have a good understanding of what might be going on in a woman with a breast mass and bone pain.